- Ron Paul's gonna run third party. Write it down. Can you say "Ross Perot"? Jeez, even the initials are the same....
- Somebody who was against the Iraq War from the beginning has now won a Presidential primary. That's almost as cool as the fact that a black man is now (for the moment) really the frontrunner for the nomination. Whether he gets elected or not, America's ready (in more senses than one)....
- The Republicans might very well have a brokered convention. The possibility has been raised before, but it might really happen after all. I dunno about you but when I say I'm ROFLMAO I'm almost not kidding for once....
- Mike Huckabee's a crazy motherfucker, but he might just pull it off. I still think Romney will whoop him plenty on 2/5, but I guess stranger things have happened. For the time being though, he's in the driver's seat.
- Obama is the ABH (Anybody But Hillary) candidate. Edwards needed IA pretty bad. It's not over but he must win in SC later this month to have a prayer.
- The Republicans might have a brokered convention. Did I mention that already? I might have because
it's fucking hilariousit is a wildly entertaining possibility. - Pakistan might be THE foreign policy issue-of-the-moment over the summer. Iraq/Afghanistan will still be important, of course (how could they not?) but those are Old News and Pakistan (for better or worse) is New News.
- Wait til The Fat Lady sings this year....this will be quite a wild ride. Expect Bush and his OVPuppeteers to try something sneaky over the summer to put Hillary and Obama in some sort of totally unnecessary double-bind, like they did to Kerry in 04 ("I voted for it before I voted against it" etc).
- Speaking of The Thief-in-Chief, his last minute pardons are going to be an incredible list of the early 21st Century's worst con men, common criminals, corporate raiders, neoconservatives, backstabbers, fixers, military-industrial complexers, and all-around shitheads. I'm not looking forward to it, myself. But that's not really on-topic tonight, I guess....
Friday, January 4, 2008
Things I'm Pretty Sure I Think I Kinda Know (Maybe) After Iowa (But Don't Quote Me)
Monday, December 31, 2007
Happy '08!
Happy New Years (to the two or three people that might read this)!
I'm having people over tonight but I wanted to dash off a few bullets before I get ready....
** We got the huge American flag up in the staircase. Turns out it's 9 1/2' x 5'. Pictures to come....
** ....speaking of which, I got a digital camera for Xmas....it kicks ass =)
** Sometime (August?) next year, I will be doing the "music" for a Jeff Dory gallery show. This really deserves its own post, but that'll have to wait til next year....
And, since the IA caucus is this week (!).....
I'm going to go out on a limb and make predictions for the hell of it....
1) Edwards 2) Clinton 3) Obama 4) Richardson 5) Dodd 6) Biden 7) Kucinich
The Donkular side is a three-way statistical tie. The reason I think Edwards will pull it out is primarily because his 2nd choice numbers are strong. Plus, he has had a much more distinctly populist message than either HRC or BHO which I think is going to be a recurring theme in 08. I mean, gas can only be $3/gal for so long before people get riled up....
Anyway, betting against a Clinton in IA is always risky, but I think Hillary is going to bounce back and slaughter the field in NH and will still win the nom. As to who I'll actually be voting for on Super Tuesday, I think I'm going to vote for Obama, but in the last few weeks he seems to be trying to talk me out of it--engaging in a war of words against should-be ally Paul Krugman, etc. The race is going to boil down to Hillary and the not-Hillary candidate; whether the ABH candidate becomes Edwards or Obama, who knows.
Hillary has to finish first or a close second in IA, and then has to win NH. If she does that, she's going to coast to the nom, I think. If she manages to finish third, or fails to win either IA or NH, she might lose just enough delegates on Super Tuesday....
Don't count on it, though. HRC, for better or worse, will probably be the nominee.
1) Romney 2) Huckabee 3) McCain 4) Giuliani 5) Paul 6) Thompson
On the Elephantine side, who the hell knows. The Democrats are bad enough, but Edwards, Obama, and Hillary are all fairly similar policy wise (except on Iraq). The Republican party coalition of corpocrats, theocrats, libertarians, and neoconservatives is not going to come out of this primary season intact. The question is which faction wins.
Romney is clearly the money candidate on that side of the aisle this year, and given that, it's hard to not pick him. If he doesn't win IA, he must win NH convincingly, or else it will be a bloodbath on Super Tuesday. Huckabee has managed to piss off a lot of the fundraisers, media hacks, and kingmakers in the party (including His Highness Rush Limbaugh). But he's got a lot of the pro-life/creationist hardcore activists in his camp (who are horrified by both Giuliani and Romney). Huck and Paul are the two guys really stirring up the grassroots (such as they are) on that side. Huck finishing second or first keeps him in the top tier, but finishing below that is OK (since nobody expected him to do anything in IA before Thanksgiving), as long as he picks up the pace in NH. Huckabee will lose some states on Super Tuesday guaranteed, since he doesn't have the pockets of Romney, McCain, or Giuliani.
McCain could actually steal this thing, because compared to the rest of these clowns, he's George Washington. Line up his resume against any of the rest of the field, and McCain blows them all away. His support has been undermined by two things: one, a poorly run campaign, two (more importantly), he actually dared to defy the Party Line on Gimto/torture/Abu Ghraib/tribunals in the debates (and was actually booed, if you can believe that). So the neocons hate McCain. Here's hoping he finishes dead last, actually, because he is honestly the only one out of the entire Republican field that will have a reasonable chance to beat either Edwards, Hillary, or Obama in the general.
Giuliani may as well drop out. The former frontrunner will be a non-factor. If he finishes lower than Paul or Thompson, I'm pretty sure he will drop out after NH. Thompson may as well be walking around with "also ran" scrawled on his forehead. Paul "wins" if he finishes with more than 5%. I'm rooting for him and his supporters to stir shit up at the Convention. I'd say it's 50-50 whether he runs on a 3rd party ticket.
Actually, I'm hoping for a brokered Republican convention. That would be fun. I don't think that's happened in my lifetime, on either side. Actually, I don't think I've ever seen the Republicans not circling the wagons behind The Guy that has been declared The Front Runner from On High. The Democratic primary is enough of a tossup as it is, but the Republican side is a goddamn mess. I love the idea of IA or NH not deciding the nominee on either side, actually; I'd love to see Super Tuesday actually be relevant for once. (And for 2012 we have got to go to a genuine national primary; enough of this silly shit with IA and NH.)
Ultimately I think the nomination is between Romney, Huckabee, and McCain. Romney is the one with the buck$$$, and I think it'll be a Hillary v. Romney general election, and Hillary will probably win 40 states.
And if you, dear reader, are navigating back to this post about 11 months from now and are giggling hysterically at my faulty reasoning, or are amused by my inability to have seen X coming, well, hey, this is why I'm a drummer....
Anyway, fuck all that....there is champagne to be drunk....
I'm having people over tonight but I wanted to dash off a few bullets before I get ready....
** We got the huge American flag up in the staircase. Turns out it's 9 1/2' x 5'. Pictures to come....
** ....speaking of which, I got a digital camera for Xmas....it kicks ass =)
** Sometime (August?) next year, I will be doing the "music" for a Jeff Dory gallery show. This really deserves its own post, but that'll have to wait til next year....
And, since the IA caucus is this week (!).....
I'm going to go out on a limb and make predictions for the hell of it....
1) Edwards 2) Clinton 3) Obama 4) Richardson 5) Dodd 6) Biden 7) Kucinich
The Donkular side is a three-way statistical tie. The reason I think Edwards will pull it out is primarily because his 2nd choice numbers are strong. Plus, he has had a much more distinctly populist message than either HRC or BHO which I think is going to be a recurring theme in 08. I mean, gas can only be $3/gal for so long before people get riled up....
Anyway, betting against a Clinton in IA is always risky, but I think Hillary is going to bounce back and slaughter the field in NH and will still win the nom. As to who I'll actually be voting for on Super Tuesday, I think I'm going to vote for Obama, but in the last few weeks he seems to be trying to talk me out of it--engaging in a war of words against should-be ally Paul Krugman, etc. The race is going to boil down to Hillary and the not-Hillary candidate; whether the ABH candidate becomes Edwards or Obama, who knows.
Hillary has to finish first or a close second in IA, and then has to win NH. If she does that, she's going to coast to the nom, I think. If she manages to finish third, or fails to win either IA or NH, she might lose just enough delegates on Super Tuesday....
Don't count on it, though. HRC, for better or worse, will probably be the nominee.
1) Romney 2) Huckabee 3) McCain 4) Giuliani 5) Paul 6) Thompson
On the Elephantine side, who the hell knows. The Democrats are bad enough, but Edwards, Obama, and Hillary are all fairly similar policy wise (except on Iraq). The Republican party coalition of corpocrats, theocrats, libertarians, and neoconservatives is not going to come out of this primary season intact. The question is which faction wins.
Romney is clearly the money candidate on that side of the aisle this year, and given that, it's hard to not pick him. If he doesn't win IA, he must win NH convincingly, or else it will be a bloodbath on Super Tuesday. Huckabee has managed to piss off a lot of the fundraisers, media hacks, and kingmakers in the party (including His Highness Rush Limbaugh). But he's got a lot of the pro-life/creationist hardcore activists in his camp (who are horrified by both Giuliani and Romney). Huck and Paul are the two guys really stirring up the grassroots (such as they are) on that side. Huck finishing second or first keeps him in the top tier, but finishing below that is OK (since nobody expected him to do anything in IA before Thanksgiving), as long as he picks up the pace in NH. Huckabee will lose some states on Super Tuesday guaranteed, since he doesn't have the pockets of Romney, McCain, or Giuliani.
McCain could actually steal this thing, because compared to the rest of these clowns, he's George Washington. Line up his resume against any of the rest of the field, and McCain blows them all away. His support has been undermined by two things: one, a poorly run campaign, two (more importantly), he actually dared to defy the Party Line on Gimto/torture/Abu Ghraib/tribunals in the debates (and was actually booed, if you can believe that). So the neocons hate McCain. Here's hoping he finishes dead last, actually, because he is honestly the only one out of the entire Republican field that will have a reasonable chance to beat either Edwards, Hillary, or Obama in the general.
Giuliani may as well drop out. The former frontrunner will be a non-factor. If he finishes lower than Paul or Thompson, I'm pretty sure he will drop out after NH. Thompson may as well be walking around with "also ran" scrawled on his forehead. Paul "wins" if he finishes with more than 5%. I'm rooting for him and his supporters to stir shit up at the Convention. I'd say it's 50-50 whether he runs on a 3rd party ticket.
Actually, I'm hoping for a brokered Republican convention. That would be fun. I don't think that's happened in my lifetime, on either side. Actually, I don't think I've ever seen the Republicans not circling the wagons behind The Guy that has been declared The Front Runner from On High. The Democratic primary is enough of a tossup as it is, but the Republican side is a goddamn mess. I love the idea of IA or NH not deciding the nominee on either side, actually; I'd love to see Super Tuesday actually be relevant for once. (And for 2012 we have got to go to a genuine national primary; enough of this silly shit with IA and NH.)
Ultimately I think the nomination is between Romney, Huckabee, and McCain. Romney is the one with the buck$$$, and I think it'll be a Hillary v. Romney general election, and Hillary will probably win 40 states.
And if you, dear reader, are navigating back to this post about 11 months from now and are giggling hysterically at my faulty reasoning, or are amused by my inability to have seen X coming, well, hey, this is why I'm a drummer....
Anyway, fuck all that....there is champagne to be drunk....
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