....previews.
#2 corrosion dub 4.24
#40-41 tectonic/l'etat c'est moi 4.46
#59-60 city on a hill/manifest destiny 4.37
#67 abandoned malls 4.30
You may have noticed that some of these are very quiet. Don't hesitate to adjust your volume level; you will hear additional detail.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Friday, August 8, 2008
coming attractions
You'll notice a new link on the roll to your right. Jeff is an asskicking photographer and there are plenty of strange/beautiful things to look at on his site. Jeff and I are collaborating on an upcoming show called CORROSION, which will premiere @ 1617 Main St., KCMO (2nd floor, above Nara), Friday September 5th, 6 pm.
I attended one of Jeff's shows a while back at a loft at 18th & Troost. A friend of his contributed some very interesting ambient music as a backdrop, which I thought complemented his artwork very well. That gave me an idea: why not try to create a single piece of music that would not repeat at all during the entire time the gallery was open? I bounced the idea off of Jeff, who loved it. We started talking about this in fall of 07 sometime, so this has been in the works for a long time. It's evolved considerably since then; the amount of stuff we've decided not to do is pretty huge....
The audio and images will have some themes in common (in particular processes of decay and urban blight), but the material in each will be independent. However, due to an effect called pareidolia, since the work is very abstract, each and every viewer/listener will interpret what they experience uniquely. If you are looking at the picture of the semi-destroyed pianos while the music is chaotic and percussive, you will make sense of it one way; if you are looking at the same picture while the music is tranquil and drony, you will understand it in another way.
The very abstract/experimental nature of both the music and photography will encourage this effect, and hopefully the extreme length and open form of the music will make it impossible for anyone to experience the same combination of music and art. Also, the speakers being scattered around the room means that the "sound" of the room will fluctuate unpredictably depending on where you are in the room and how many other people there are, whether they're talking, etc. Since there will be no one "correct" way of experiencing the show, one is left only with their five senses as guide.
I am getting very close to completing the work; running time is going to be just slightly over four hours (looks like it'll be about 4:03, but I'm not quite done yet....), which has presented some interesting technical challenges in creating, storing, manipulating, and compiling the whole thing. Most of it is texture and drones; one sound drifts into another, usually without clearly delineated boundaries (although there are several abrupt transitions and surprises scattered throughout).
You can view what Jeff will be displaying in the "glassworks" gallery on his page. I'll have some mp3 previews up shortly (once I can figure out what the hell to excerpt!).
I attended one of Jeff's shows a while back at a loft at 18th & Troost. A friend of his contributed some very interesting ambient music as a backdrop, which I thought complemented his artwork very well. That gave me an idea: why not try to create a single piece of music that would not repeat at all during the entire time the gallery was open? I bounced the idea off of Jeff, who loved it. We started talking about this in fall of 07 sometime, so this has been in the works for a long time. It's evolved considerably since then; the amount of stuff we've decided not to do is pretty huge....
The audio and images will have some themes in common (in particular processes of decay and urban blight), but the material in each will be independent. However, due to an effect called pareidolia, since the work is very abstract, each and every viewer/listener will interpret what they experience uniquely. If you are looking at the picture of the semi-destroyed pianos while the music is chaotic and percussive, you will make sense of it one way; if you are looking at the same picture while the music is tranquil and drony, you will understand it in another way.
The very abstract/experimental nature of both the music and photography will encourage this effect, and hopefully the extreme length and open form of the music will make it impossible for anyone to experience the same combination of music and art. Also, the speakers being scattered around the room means that the "sound" of the room will fluctuate unpredictably depending on where you are in the room and how many other people there are, whether they're talking, etc. Since there will be no one "correct" way of experiencing the show, one is left only with their five senses as guide.
I am getting very close to completing the work; running time is going to be just slightly over four hours (looks like it'll be about 4:03, but I'm not quite done yet....), which has presented some interesting technical challenges in creating, storing, manipulating, and compiling the whole thing. Most of it is texture and drones; one sound drifts into another, usually without clearly delineated boundaries (although there are several abrupt transitions and surprises scattered throughout).
You can view what Jeff will be displaying in the "glassworks" gallery on his page. I'll have some mp3 previews up shortly (once I can figure out what the hell to excerpt!).
Tuesday, August 5, 2008
"If you have a well-maintained car.....
THEN THE TERRISTS HAVE ALREADY WON!!!!!!!!!!!"
A few thoughts....
1. He's clearly dead right, and I don't see how anybody can argue otherwise with a straight face.
2. When was the last time you remember a Democratic presidential candidate actually using the word "lie"?
3. Somewhere Jimmy Carter is putting on a sweater and having a pretty good laugh.
4. McCain cannot be excited about facing Obama in the debates.
5. I'm confused as to what the point of the tire gauge stunt was in the first place....do Republicans genuinely think that "conserving gas is for dirty fucking hippies" is a winning message this year? They've gotten some good polling on the proposals for increased offshore drilling. Which means absolutely fuck-all in terms of what is sound policy, but I guess they feel it gives them license to throw feces at the people who correctly point out that drilling isn't going to do a damn thing to fix the problem.
The problem, of course, is that the economy depends on a finite resource which will gradually become more and more expensive due to the highly esoteric and obscure laws of supply and demand. And here I was thinking that the people who lift up the free market as a panacea for everything would be familiar with supply and demand....
Even if increased American drilling could improve the situation right this minute (which it can't), it would still only provide a temporary solution. Eventually, the economy must be weaned off of oil. It is nowhere written that an oil-based economy must be permanent.
(Anyway, this post is for Sara who was giving me shit about not updating the blog sincethe end of March a jillion years ago.)
A few thoughts....
1. He's clearly dead right, and I don't see how anybody can argue otherwise with a straight face.
2. When was the last time you remember a Democratic presidential candidate actually using the word "lie"?
3. Somewhere Jimmy Carter is putting on a sweater and having a pretty good laugh.
4. McCain cannot be excited about facing Obama in the debates.
5. I'm confused as to what the point of the tire gauge stunt was in the first place....do Republicans genuinely think that "conserving gas is for dirty fucking hippies" is a winning message this year? They've gotten some good polling on the proposals for increased offshore drilling. Which means absolutely fuck-all in terms of what is sound policy, but I guess they feel it gives them license to throw feces at the people who correctly point out that drilling isn't going to do a damn thing to fix the problem.
The problem, of course, is that the economy depends on a finite resource which will gradually become more and more expensive due to the highly esoteric and obscure laws of supply and demand. And here I was thinking that the people who lift up the free market as a panacea for everything would be familiar with supply and demand....
Even if increased American drilling could improve the situation right this minute (which it can't), it would still only provide a temporary solution. Eventually, the economy must be weaned off of oil. It is nowhere written that an oil-based economy must be permanent.
(Anyway, this post is for Sara who was giving me shit about not updating the blog since
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Pre-Edison recordings discovered
Whoa.
Apparently a Frenchman figured out how to record sound well before Edison did. But it took 150 years and lasers to actually play back the sound. Edison's place in history is safe because his system could play audio as well as record. Still, it's hard for me not to find something called a "phonautogram" cool.
If I read the article correctly, they had to take the paper (yes, paper) and scan it optically, and then reconstruct the waveforms for playback. The gadget was hand-cranked, so the playback rate would have been erratic and would have to be corrected for. That sounds like it was really the hard/time-consuming part....historians have been carefully scanning really old documents of various sorts for a while now, but converting those images to sound (while accounting for the wobbly speed of the machine, and any other idiosyncracies it had) is new.
Apparently a Frenchman figured out how to record sound well before Edison did. But it took 150 years and lasers to actually play back the sound. Edison's place in history is safe because his system could play audio as well as record. Still, it's hard for me not to find something called a "phonautogram" cool.
If I read the article correctly, they had to take the paper (yes, paper) and scan it optically, and then reconstruct the waveforms for playback. The gadget was hand-cranked, so the playback rate would have been erratic and would have to be corrected for. That sounds like it was really the hard/time-consuming part....historians have been carefully scanning really old documents of various sorts for a while now, but converting those images to sound (while accounting for the wobbly speed of the machine, and any other idiosyncracies it had) is new.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
5 Years
US deaths: ~4,000
US wounded: ~29,000
Iraqi deaths: unknown (minimum six figures)
Total cost to American taxpayers: $474B (and rising)
Dear George, Dick, Tony, Colin, and all the rest: hang your fucking heads today, you red-handed criminals.
US wounded: ~29,000
Iraqi deaths: unknown (minimum six figures)
Total cost to American taxpayers: $474B (and rising)
Dear George, Dick, Tony, Colin, and all the rest: hang your fucking heads today, you red-handed criminals.
Friday, March 7, 2008
Samplitude 10
arrived yesterday. I am one happy geek.
Just because I can, here's a picture of the gigantic flag hanging on the only wall in the house big enough to hold it:
Just because I can, here's a picture of the gigantic flag hanging on the only wall in the house big enough to hold it:
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Super Fat Tuesday
WV Republicans actually have a convention (not a caucus or election). Today McCain threw his support to Huckabee to prevent Romney from claiming the delegates. That alone will make Limbaugh apoplectic tomorrow.
Here's what's going to send him into orbit: so did Ron Paul!
Paul and McCain teamed up to hand WV to Huckabee in order to screw Romney. Yowza.
Here's what's going to send him into orbit: so did Ron Paul!
Paul and McCain teamed up to hand WV to Huckabee in order to screw Romney. Yowza.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
for what it's worth....
In Missouri, Obama has been endorsed by Sen. Claire McCaskill, and Clinton has been endorsed by Rep. Emmanuel Cleaver (former mayor of KC--they named 47th St. after him, is all you need to know).
This means that Obama has been endorsed by the state's highest profile white female Democrat and Clinton has been endorsed by the state's highest profile black male Democrat.
MO: the ultimate border state.
*****
While I'm at it....
HRC will probably win MO, but as of maybe a few days ago, it's looking like (if we can believe the polling) Super Fat Tuesday will be indecisive....this has become a delegate race (for the first time in decades) and we will probably have meaningful conventions on both sides. I was convinced that either Obama or HRC would be pulling away by now, but it just hasn't happened.
I have no idea when this thing will end. If either Obama or Clinton can score some sort of surprise GOTV coup on 2/5 and knock the other out, then the nomination will be decided. But it's looking likely that we'll have to keep going, into the post-Super Duper Tuesday primary season. And the stakes get higher....
Personally, I was hoping we could have had this figured out by now....especially since McCain is very close to being the presumptive nominee on the other side.
*****
I'm surprised Edwards dropped out so soon. He could have plausibly had ~10% of delegates at the convention, which if Obama and Clinton were nearly at parity (45-45), could have made him the kingmaker. For whatever reason, he decided to end the campaign. Perhaps this will make the brokered convention less likely.
Here's hoping....
This means that Obama has been endorsed by the state's highest profile white female Democrat and Clinton has been endorsed by the state's highest profile black male Democrat.
MO: the ultimate border state.
*****
While I'm at it....
HRC will probably win MO, but as of maybe a few days ago, it's looking like (if we can believe the polling) Super Fat Tuesday will be indecisive....this has become a delegate race (for the first time in decades) and we will probably have meaningful conventions on both sides. I was convinced that either Obama or HRC would be pulling away by now, but it just hasn't happened.
I have no idea when this thing will end. If either Obama or Clinton can score some sort of surprise GOTV coup on 2/5 and knock the other out, then the nomination will be decided. But it's looking likely that we'll have to keep going, into the post-Super Duper Tuesday primary season. And the stakes get higher....
Personally, I was hoping we could have had this figured out by now....especially since McCain is very close to being the presumptive nominee on the other side.
*****
I'm surprised Edwards dropped out so soon. He could have plausibly had ~10% of delegates at the convention, which if Obama and Clinton were nearly at parity (45-45), could have made him the kingmaker. For whatever reason, he decided to end the campaign. Perhaps this will make the brokered convention less likely.
Here's hoping....
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
surprise!
Some good news for once: Matt Blunt took everybody by surprise today by announcing he wasn't going to run for re-election this November.
And there was much rejoicing....
MO Republicans seem to be caught off-guard; Blunt re-election campaign ads were already on the air (!), possible replacement candidates had to get back to reporters about whether they were running or not. Suddenly the shadow of a multi-candidate free-for-all is looming over the Republican primary.
Obviously the immediate question is: what changed? Blunt's tenure has been scandal-ridden....it's possible a really big scandal is going to break in the next few days, or something.
Whatever....the sound you hear is champagne being popped at Nixon for Guv 08 HQ....
And there was much rejoicing....
MO Republicans seem to be caught off-guard; Blunt re-election campaign ads were already on the air (!), possible replacement candidates had to get back to reporters about whether they were running or not. Suddenly the shadow of a multi-candidate free-for-all is looming over the Republican primary.
Obviously the immediate question is: what changed? Blunt's tenure has been scandal-ridden....it's possible a really big scandal is going to break in the next few days, or something.
Whatever....the sound you hear is champagne being popped at Nixon for Guv 08 HQ....
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Primaries
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
Romney won Michigan and stays alive, Clinton wins NV but apparently Obama takes more NV delegates (?!), Mike Bloomberg is talking to Perotistas, Giuliani uses images of the Towers falling....
And then there's Ron Paul, the Little Engine That Could.
This has been goddamn entertaining, if nothing else.
Romney won Michigan and stays alive, Clinton wins NV but apparently Obama takes more NV delegates (?!), Mike Bloomberg is talking to Perotistas, Giuliani uses images of the Towers falling....
And then there's Ron Paul, the Little Engine That Could.
This has been goddamn entertaining, if nothing else.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
the frustrating art of sampling
OK. So you're not likely to have to read much at all about somebody like Tom Cruise on this blog. And rest assured, this post isn't really about Tom.
I came across this earlier and it's driving me crazy. No, it's not the rambling pseudo-religious cant, the insane jargon, the zeal, the free-association, or the general nuttiness of the whole thing. Nope. That's what makes it perfect for recasting it in a new context to make a point about how dopey Scientology is.
No, the thing that's bugging the shit out of me is that there's music running throughout the whole thing, and TC speaks slowly and just above a whisper for most of it. Aargh. Cutting out the music isn't impossible but it would damage theintelligibility er, audibility of the speech. The side effects would be too severe to make it useful.
At first I thought the video was just a standard-issue ET interview or something, but at the end it becomes obvious that it's some kind of propaganda flick put together by the Scientologists themselves. (The end of the video is one of those things that has to be experienced rather than described FWIW. If you can't sit through the whole thing skip to the last 30 seconds or so.)
The electronic stuff that I've been working on recently is going to have some of these kinds of speakers (gibberish from people who really convinced by it) and this would have been perfect, except for what sounds suspiciously like the Mission Impossible theme going in the background for all eight minutes.
Anyway, this is typical....a lot of times something that is perfect for sampling (whether it's a beat or a bassline or anything else) has some other additional component that's too difficult to pare away from the original while still keeping the sound of the original intact. Very aggravating sometimes. Nearly anything is technically possible in digital audio, but that doesn't mean that everything is actually doable.
P.S. There's a building being rented by the Scientologists just down the street from me, @ 39th & Main, above an H&R Block storefront. One time there were protesters holding signs outside on the sidewalk. I honked. =D
I came across this earlier and it's driving me crazy. No, it's not the rambling pseudo-religious cant, the insane jargon, the zeal, the free-association, or the general nuttiness of the whole thing. Nope. That's what makes it perfect for recasting it in a new context to make a point about how dopey Scientology is.
No, the thing that's bugging the shit out of me is that there's music running throughout the whole thing, and TC speaks slowly and just above a whisper for most of it. Aargh. Cutting out the music isn't impossible but it would damage the
At first I thought the video was just a standard-issue ET interview or something, but at the end it becomes obvious that it's some kind of propaganda flick put together by the Scientologists themselves. (The end of the video is one of those things that has to be experienced rather than described FWIW. If you can't sit through the whole thing skip to the last 30 seconds or so.)
The electronic stuff that I've been working on recently is going to have some of these kinds of speakers (gibberish from people who really convinced by it) and this would have been perfect, except for what sounds suspiciously like the Mission Impossible theme going in the background for all eight minutes.
Anyway, this is typical....a lot of times something that is perfect for sampling (whether it's a beat or a bassline or anything else) has some other additional component that's too difficult to pare away from the original while still keeping the sound of the original intact. Very aggravating sometimes. Nearly anything is technically possible in digital audio, but that doesn't mean that everything is actually doable.
P.S. There's a building being rented by the Scientologists just down the street from me, @ 39th & Main, above an H&R Block storefront. One time there were protesters holding signs outside on the sidewalk. I honked. =D
Friday, January 4, 2008
Things I'm Pretty Sure I Think I Kinda Know (Maybe) After Iowa (But Don't Quote Me)
- Ron Paul's gonna run third party. Write it down. Can you say "Ross Perot"? Jeez, even the initials are the same....
- Somebody who was against the Iraq War from the beginning has now won a Presidential primary. That's almost as cool as the fact that a black man is now (for the moment) really the frontrunner for the nomination. Whether he gets elected or not, America's ready (in more senses than one)....
- The Republicans might very well have a brokered convention. The possibility has been raised before, but it might really happen after all. I dunno about you but when I say I'm ROFLMAO I'm almost not kidding for once....
- Mike Huckabee's a crazy motherfucker, but he might just pull it off. I still think Romney will whoop him plenty on 2/5, but I guess stranger things have happened. For the time being though, he's in the driver's seat.
- Obama is the ABH (Anybody But Hillary) candidate. Edwards needed IA pretty bad. It's not over but he must win in SC later this month to have a prayer.
- The Republicans might have a brokered convention. Did I mention that already? I might have because
it's fucking hilariousit is a wildly entertaining possibility. - Pakistan might be THE foreign policy issue-of-the-moment over the summer. Iraq/Afghanistan will still be important, of course (how could they not?) but those are Old News and Pakistan (for better or worse) is New News.
- Wait til The Fat Lady sings this year....this will be quite a wild ride. Expect Bush and his OVPuppeteers to try something sneaky over the summer to put Hillary and Obama in some sort of totally unnecessary double-bind, like they did to Kerry in 04 ("I voted for it before I voted against it" etc).
- Speaking of The Thief-in-Chief, his last minute pardons are going to be an incredible list of the early 21st Century's worst con men, common criminals, corporate raiders, neoconservatives, backstabbers, fixers, military-industrial complexers, and all-around shitheads. I'm not looking forward to it, myself. But that's not really on-topic tonight, I guess....
Monday, December 31, 2007
Happy '08!
Happy New Years (to the two or three people that might read this)!
I'm having people over tonight but I wanted to dash off a few bullets before I get ready....
** We got the huge American flag up in the staircase. Turns out it's 9 1/2' x 5'. Pictures to come....
** ....speaking of which, I got a digital camera for Xmas....it kicks ass =)
** Sometime (August?) next year, I will be doing the "music" for a Jeff Dory gallery show. This really deserves its own post, but that'll have to wait til next year....
And, since the IA caucus is this week (!).....
I'm going to go out on a limb and make predictions for the hell of it....
1) Edwards 2) Clinton 3) Obama 4) Richardson 5) Dodd 6) Biden 7) Kucinich
The Donkular side is a three-way statistical tie. The reason I think Edwards will pull it out is primarily because his 2nd choice numbers are strong. Plus, he has had a much more distinctly populist message than either HRC or BHO which I think is going to be a recurring theme in 08. I mean, gas can only be $3/gal for so long before people get riled up....
Anyway, betting against a Clinton in IA is always risky, but I think Hillary is going to bounce back and slaughter the field in NH and will still win the nom. As to who I'll actually be voting for on Super Tuesday, I think I'm going to vote for Obama, but in the last few weeks he seems to be trying to talk me out of it--engaging in a war of words against should-be ally Paul Krugman, etc. The race is going to boil down to Hillary and the not-Hillary candidate; whether the ABH candidate becomes Edwards or Obama, who knows.
Hillary has to finish first or a close second in IA, and then has to win NH. If she does that, she's going to coast to the nom, I think. If she manages to finish third, or fails to win either IA or NH, she might lose just enough delegates on Super Tuesday....
Don't count on it, though. HRC, for better or worse, will probably be the nominee.
1) Romney 2) Huckabee 3) McCain 4) Giuliani 5) Paul 6) Thompson
On the Elephantine side, who the hell knows. The Democrats are bad enough, but Edwards, Obama, and Hillary are all fairly similar policy wise (except on Iraq). The Republican party coalition of corpocrats, theocrats, libertarians, and neoconservatives is not going to come out of this primary season intact. The question is which faction wins.
Romney is clearly the money candidate on that side of the aisle this year, and given that, it's hard to not pick him. If he doesn't win IA, he must win NH convincingly, or else it will be a bloodbath on Super Tuesday. Huckabee has managed to piss off a lot of the fundraisers, media hacks, and kingmakers in the party (including His Highness Rush Limbaugh). But he's got a lot of the pro-life/creationist hardcore activists in his camp (who are horrified by both Giuliani and Romney). Huck and Paul are the two guys really stirring up the grassroots (such as they are) on that side. Huck finishing second or first keeps him in the top tier, but finishing below that is OK (since nobody expected him to do anything in IA before Thanksgiving), as long as he picks up the pace in NH. Huckabee will lose some states on Super Tuesday guaranteed, since he doesn't have the pockets of Romney, McCain, or Giuliani.
McCain could actually steal this thing, because compared to the rest of these clowns, he's George Washington. Line up his resume against any of the rest of the field, and McCain blows them all away. His support has been undermined by two things: one, a poorly run campaign, two (more importantly), he actually dared to defy the Party Line on Gimto/torture/Abu Ghraib/tribunals in the debates (and was actually booed, if you can believe that). So the neocons hate McCain. Here's hoping he finishes dead last, actually, because he is honestly the only one out of the entire Republican field that will have a reasonable chance to beat either Edwards, Hillary, or Obama in the general.
Giuliani may as well drop out. The former frontrunner will be a non-factor. If he finishes lower than Paul or Thompson, I'm pretty sure he will drop out after NH. Thompson may as well be walking around with "also ran" scrawled on his forehead. Paul "wins" if he finishes with more than 5%. I'm rooting for him and his supporters to stir shit up at the Convention. I'd say it's 50-50 whether he runs on a 3rd party ticket.
Actually, I'm hoping for a brokered Republican convention. That would be fun. I don't think that's happened in my lifetime, on either side. Actually, I don't think I've ever seen the Republicans not circling the wagons behind The Guy that has been declared The Front Runner from On High. The Democratic primary is enough of a tossup as it is, but the Republican side is a goddamn mess. I love the idea of IA or NH not deciding the nominee on either side, actually; I'd love to see Super Tuesday actually be relevant for once. (And for 2012 we have got to go to a genuine national primary; enough of this silly shit with IA and NH.)
Ultimately I think the nomination is between Romney, Huckabee, and McCain. Romney is the one with the buck$$$, and I think it'll be a Hillary v. Romney general election, and Hillary will probably win 40 states.
And if you, dear reader, are navigating back to this post about 11 months from now and are giggling hysterically at my faulty reasoning, or are amused by my inability to have seen X coming, well, hey, this is why I'm a drummer....
Anyway, fuck all that....there is champagne to be drunk....
I'm having people over tonight but I wanted to dash off a few bullets before I get ready....
** We got the huge American flag up in the staircase. Turns out it's 9 1/2' x 5'. Pictures to come....
** ....speaking of which, I got a digital camera for Xmas....it kicks ass =)
** Sometime (August?) next year, I will be doing the "music" for a Jeff Dory gallery show. This really deserves its own post, but that'll have to wait til next year....
And, since the IA caucus is this week (!).....
I'm going to go out on a limb and make predictions for the hell of it....
1) Edwards 2) Clinton 3) Obama 4) Richardson 5) Dodd 6) Biden 7) Kucinich
The Donkular side is a three-way statistical tie. The reason I think Edwards will pull it out is primarily because his 2nd choice numbers are strong. Plus, he has had a much more distinctly populist message than either HRC or BHO which I think is going to be a recurring theme in 08. I mean, gas can only be $3/gal for so long before people get riled up....
Anyway, betting against a Clinton in IA is always risky, but I think Hillary is going to bounce back and slaughter the field in NH and will still win the nom. As to who I'll actually be voting for on Super Tuesday, I think I'm going to vote for Obama, but in the last few weeks he seems to be trying to talk me out of it--engaging in a war of words against should-be ally Paul Krugman, etc. The race is going to boil down to Hillary and the not-Hillary candidate; whether the ABH candidate becomes Edwards or Obama, who knows.
Hillary has to finish first or a close second in IA, and then has to win NH. If she does that, she's going to coast to the nom, I think. If she manages to finish third, or fails to win either IA or NH, she might lose just enough delegates on Super Tuesday....
Don't count on it, though. HRC, for better or worse, will probably be the nominee.
1) Romney 2) Huckabee 3) McCain 4) Giuliani 5) Paul 6) Thompson
On the Elephantine side, who the hell knows. The Democrats are bad enough, but Edwards, Obama, and Hillary are all fairly similar policy wise (except on Iraq). The Republican party coalition of corpocrats, theocrats, libertarians, and neoconservatives is not going to come out of this primary season intact. The question is which faction wins.
Romney is clearly the money candidate on that side of the aisle this year, and given that, it's hard to not pick him. If he doesn't win IA, he must win NH convincingly, or else it will be a bloodbath on Super Tuesday. Huckabee has managed to piss off a lot of the fundraisers, media hacks, and kingmakers in the party (including His Highness Rush Limbaugh). But he's got a lot of the pro-life/creationist hardcore activists in his camp (who are horrified by both Giuliani and Romney). Huck and Paul are the two guys really stirring up the grassroots (such as they are) on that side. Huck finishing second or first keeps him in the top tier, but finishing below that is OK (since nobody expected him to do anything in IA before Thanksgiving), as long as he picks up the pace in NH. Huckabee will lose some states on Super Tuesday guaranteed, since he doesn't have the pockets of Romney, McCain, or Giuliani.
McCain could actually steal this thing, because compared to the rest of these clowns, he's George Washington. Line up his resume against any of the rest of the field, and McCain blows them all away. His support has been undermined by two things: one, a poorly run campaign, two (more importantly), he actually dared to defy the Party Line on Gimto/torture/Abu Ghraib/tribunals in the debates (and was actually booed, if you can believe that). So the neocons hate McCain. Here's hoping he finishes dead last, actually, because he is honestly the only one out of the entire Republican field that will have a reasonable chance to beat either Edwards, Hillary, or Obama in the general.
Giuliani may as well drop out. The former frontrunner will be a non-factor. If he finishes lower than Paul or Thompson, I'm pretty sure he will drop out after NH. Thompson may as well be walking around with "also ran" scrawled on his forehead. Paul "wins" if he finishes with more than 5%. I'm rooting for him and his supporters to stir shit up at the Convention. I'd say it's 50-50 whether he runs on a 3rd party ticket.
Actually, I'm hoping for a brokered Republican convention. That would be fun. I don't think that's happened in my lifetime, on either side. Actually, I don't think I've ever seen the Republicans not circling the wagons behind The Guy that has been declared The Front Runner from On High. The Democratic primary is enough of a tossup as it is, but the Republican side is a goddamn mess. I love the idea of IA or NH not deciding the nominee on either side, actually; I'd love to see Super Tuesday actually be relevant for once. (And for 2012 we have got to go to a genuine national primary; enough of this silly shit with IA and NH.)
Ultimately I think the nomination is between Romney, Huckabee, and McCain. Romney is the one with the buck$$$, and I think it'll be a Hillary v. Romney general election, and Hillary will probably win 40 states.
And if you, dear reader, are navigating back to this post about 11 months from now and are giggling hysterically at my faulty reasoning, or are amused by my inability to have seen X coming, well, hey, this is why I'm a drummer....
Anyway, fuck all that....there is champagne to be drunk....
Saturday, December 15, 2007
the big radio
upstairs turns out to be a Coronado. The serial plate is mostly destroyed, unfortunately, which complicates trying to identify it. The only place I've been able to find that has a picture of this is here (scroll down, or search for Coronado in the page). So it's from the late 40s then. Given the shape that it's in it's probably worthless, but it looks cool and the speaker sounds really good (10" cone). The turntable doesn't work but the radio works fine (it sounds less staticky than the Zenith).
What did I do before Google? Vol. 176851243969
I've had one of these in the basement for quite some time. I got it from my folks, who picked it up at a garage sale (?) someplace. I had wondered exactly how old it is, but until now it'd never occurred to me to look up the model # on Google. Duh.
According to this, it's from 1937 and was worth $30 brand new. I don't know how much this one would be worth--it's not exactly in tiptop shape, although it does work.
I have another radio upstairs, although that one is different (it's much larger and even has a pullout turntable! ZOMG). I got that from a girl two blocks down the street who was moving to Barcelona and selling everything. I'll have to look that one up too.
According to this, it's from 1937 and was worth $30 brand new. I don't know how much this one would be worth--it's not exactly in tiptop shape, although it does work.
I have another radio upstairs, although that one is different (it's much larger and even has a pullout turntable! ZOMG). I got that from a girl two blocks down the street who was moving to Barcelona and selling everything. I'll have to look that one up too.
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